(18) My opinion about the U.S. Dollar, RMB and Crypto Currency for the moment

        These days, I see crypto currency and blockchain projects are developing fast,well, I also see different attitudes of governments towards crypto currencies.So this time, I would like to talk about my views on the US dollar, RMB and crypto currencies briefly. If there is anything wrong in my article, please correct me.

       Let me begin with US dollar.

Since the end of World War II, especially after the U.S.-Soviet struggle for hegemony and the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the victory of the United States, the U.S. dollar has basically become the world currency, accepted by most of the countries in the world, and become their foreign exchange reserves. The United States' technological, financial, and military capabilities have become the basis of the value of the U.S. dollar, and all countries that question the value of the U.S. dollar have been sanctioned more or less. So far, no other fiat currency can challenge the status of the US dollar, but is it perfect? Answer is No.

 As US Treasury Secretary Connery in the Nixon era said, "The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem." Since the Fed has to tighten/relax the liquidity of the U.S. dollar based on its judgment on the U.S. market, many  Countries that reserve U.S. dollars have suffered losses and were sheared. 

And now, due to the growing US government debt, more and more people are beginning to question the value of the dollar. Therefore, I said that the US dollar is not perfect as a world currency. Although it has not caused major problems in the short-term, this doesn't mean it will also not cause one in the long-term.

Then let me talk about the RMB.

China has seized the opportunity of reform and opening up. With the support of the demographic dividend, through concerted efforts from the government and the people, China has achieved amazing results, surpassed countless goals, and reached the position of the world's second largest economy. 

However, this kind of rapid progress is not sustainable. One reason is that the demographic dividend cannot be maintained, and the aging is approaching step by step. 

Another reason is that the economic growth driven by real estate after 2008 was originally a model of eating future wealth, and there will always be a day of reversal. 

Of course, I also see that China is investing overseas, including some countries in Africa, teaching people to learn skills and work better, but it takes a long time for this method to get output. I understand that the value basis of RMB is supported by China’s rapid development and huge industrial base. 

However, RMB has not been accepted by most countries in the world, and it is constantly being suppressed by the United States. It is also very difficult to supply  the world with products of one country to support the value of money. This is the same as the United States relying on a country's military strength to maintain the world order and maintain the value of the dollar. It can't be maintained for a long time.

Finally crypto currency. 

As far as I know, the attitudes and opinions of  participants and non-participants towards blockchain and crypto currency are totally different： 

Participants believe that blockchain and crypto currency will bring a revolution, so the value of crypto currency is very high; non-participants think that this is just a Ponzi scheme, which will explode sooner or later and it is worthless. The two sides have not reached a consensus on crypto currency and blockchain. 

Before I came into the world of Axie Infinity, I also thought that the content of the blockchain is a scam, because most of the reports I have seen are that many scammers use the blockchain as a gimmick to earn new comers' money.

But after studying and researching Axie Infinity and blockchain-related content, and then encountered scammers on Discord, I found that my previous views on blockchain were one-sided. 

Based on blockchain technology, Bitcoin and Ethereum already have many distributed applications, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), and a large amount of capital inflows, including: a16z, a well-known Internet VC that once invested in Facebook and Twitter and other projects.

These Internet VCs are betting on crypto currency, blockchain, web 3.0 and other projects and content. Then we can't just say that we are better than these venture capital companies without studying, thinking, and researching? Can we analyze these scams that Internet venture capital companies can't see even after research?

        At the same time, the current investment risk of blockchain and crypto currency projects is still very high. Once we encounter scammers, crypto assets may be all taken away. Therefore, I say that blockchain projects, crypto currency risks and opportunities actually coexist , they get together for the moment.

        The biggest advantage of crypto currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum is that it breaks the financial barriers between multiple countries under the old legal currency model, allowing Americans, Chinese and people from other parts of the world to invest in A consensus currency, to participate in the investment opportunities of Web 3.0 projects. 

        It also has big risks. On the one hand, smart contracts based on codes are not perfect. On the other hand, the attitudes of governments of various countries towards crypto currencies are not clear,for example ,  China is cracking down hard, while Singapore and other countries are actively participating. I think that in the future, relevant regulatory laws and regulations on crypto currencies will definitely be gradually improved.

        Is it possible for all countries and governments in the world to jointly ban crypto currencies? At least in terms of attitudes, behaviors and results towards the cov 19 epidemic, it is basically impossible. Some countries have banned, then they will give the market , opportunities and risks to other countries that with a positive attitude. 

        The result will be two kinds : if crypto currency and blockchain projects are successful, then these prohibited countries will either never participate, or they will have to learn from others, and it will be difficult to lead. If crypto currency and blockchain projects fail, these banned countries have avoided the risk of failure and gained a higher status. 

        As far as my own understanding, the former result is more likely to happen, because I see that there are many decentralized projects and decentralized autonomous organizations booming.

        It is impossible for any central bank digital currency CDBC to be fully accepted by all the other countries, though it will be supported by its issuing government and central bank. This is its so-called fundamental value support. However, its openness is seriously insufficient and easily used to harvest the wealth of its users. 

        Blockchain-based crypto currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not under the control and support of various countries. This is its disadvantage, but they are open and can quickly realize transnational transfer and use, and are more widely used worldwide with low cost. Meanwhile it will be used by criminals for money laundering and fraud. I think neither of them is perfect. Therefore, there is no possibility that one party can completely replace the other one in the future.They will both alive.

        I'm sure I will continue to actively participate in blockchain projects in the next few years, pay attention to the crypto currency market, and prepare to make a long-term investment. As for those who watch ‘The Fire’ from the other side, neither can they feel its temperature, nor will they be hurt by its dangers. The choice is all in one's own hands.